Demand Forecasting & Strategic Planning
Supply forecasting that balances risk, cost, and patient access under real-world uncertainty.
Enrollment is uncertain, shelf life is finite, and overage is expensive — so forecasting is where most of the cost and risk in clinical supply is actually decided. Bensen Solutions builds demand models that make those trade-offs explicit instead of guessing high to be safe.
We pair simulation with scenario and sensitivity analysis so sponsors can see the cost of each buffer decision and plan capacity for the long range, not just the next batch.
What this engagement includes
Demand modeling & simulation
Patient- and site-level demand models with Monte Carlo simulation across enrollment, dropout, and country-activation scenarios.
Scenario & sensitivity analysis
Quantified what-ifs on enrollment speed, randomization ratios, and country mix so plans are robust, not brittle.
Safety stock & overage strategy
Buffer and overage levels tuned to the study's risk tolerance — protecting supply without funding avoidable waste.
Long-range capacity planning
Production and depot capacity planning that looks past the current batch to the full program horizon.
Budget forecasting
Supply budgets and cost projections tied directly to the demand model, so finance and operations share one number.
S&OP alignment
Sales & operations planning cadence connecting clinical, manufacturing, and logistics around a single agreed plan.
How we work
- 1
Gather assumptions
We collect protocol, enrollment, and country data and pressure-test the assumptions behind them.
- 2
Model & simulate
We build the demand model and simulate scenarios to quantify risk and the cost of each buffer choice.
- 3
Recommend the plan
We translate the model into a concrete production, depot, and overage strategy with a clear rationale.
- 4
Re-forecast on signal
We update the forecast as real enrollment and consumption data arrive, so the plan stays current.
What you can expect
- Buffer decisions backed by data, not guesswork
- Lower overage and write-offs at study close
- Capacity secured before it becomes a constraint
- One demand number shared by operations and finance
Frequently asked questions
- How is clinical trial drug demand forecast?
- Demand is forecast by modeling patient enrollment, randomization ratios, dosing, dropout, and country activation, then running Monte Carlo simulation across those uncertainties. The output sizes production, depot stock, and safety buffers to a chosen service level rather than a single best-guess number.
- What is overage in clinical supply?
- Overage is the extra investigational product manufactured and distributed beyond expected patient need, held as a buffer against enrollment variability, expiry, and distribution risk. Too little overage risks stockouts; too much drives cost and waste — forecasting sets the right level.
- How often should a supply forecast be updated?
- A forecast should be refreshed whenever a key signal changes — enrollment pace, country activations, protocol amendments, or actual consumption at sites — and reviewed on a regular cadence (often monthly) so production and resupply decisions are made on current data.